May 31, 2011

Analytical musings on why the Timberwolves won't be good until at least 2020

Ok fine, you got me.  It took me a long time to get here, and despite praising the fates of the franchise when Deadzo was finally cut loose, I now have to fully admit it...

David Kahn is as bad at being a General Manager as Deadzo was.

(almost-silent sobbing)

The reason it took me so long to get here is because the two men have such dramatically different styles.  (puts on Bill Simmons skull-cap)  You see, being with Deadzo was like dating a truly horrible woman for 10 years.  It was awful, there were some ups and downs, and when it was over, I just wanted my next girlfriend to be completely different from that woman in every- oh goddamn hell, I can't write like that.  Let's just say this:

One of the main goals of being a GM in the NBA is to evaluate players and sign, trade or draft them based on that evaluation.  You see an unsigned free agent, you determine what he's worth, you call his agent, you negotiate, you end up signing him.  Sometimes you have to call other GMs to see if certain players are available, you make offers, etc.  This evaluation is absolutely paramount in the NBA.  It drives all GMs internally, whether they care to admit it or not.

So, the next question is, how do you determine which guys are "your guys"?  What type of team do you put together, which types of players do you target, and what are your goals?  GMs have their marching orders from ownership, yes, but not really.  The NBA is wickedly cost-controlled, with both a cap and a spending floor that teams can't go beneath.  Almost every team spends up and over the cap... the only real difference is how much luxury tax the individual teams are willing to pay.  The teams that have dogshit payrolls usually have dogshit attendance (LIKE OUR WOLVES), and that too plays out accordingly. But still, this all only matters in terms of a dollar figure... it doesn't identify which players to target.  And here is my assertion:

There are various spectra upon which every GM lies.  Take for example "stats".  GMs either put a lot of emphasis on individual concrete numbers (PER, +/-, PPG, etc) or they don't, and just look at raw talent.  Then there's the "money" spectrum.... a cost-controlled GM only takes on guys for a short time and takes minimal risk, preferring to stay in the draft and develop players, whereas Isiah Thomas will just spend everything all the time because money means nothing to him.  But then there's the "value" spectrum.  This is how a GM assigns value to a player.  And, not to go all Motorcycle Maintenance on you here, but the question of "value" really does lead to a question of "quality", and that can get real deep real quick.

One one end of this spectrum is the idea that you want to go get "Ballplayers".  What the GM does is watch film (or live workouts) and judges a player based on skill and skill alone.  This is the type of GM that says things like "you can't teach height" or "he's got a long lever".  At the far extreme of this spectrum lies Kevin McHale.  His entire career in judging talent was to look at raw skills of ballplayers and judge them (because he himself was a "ballplayer") as either worth it or not.  He probably never looked at a stat or a salary in his life.  He didn't care about any of that.  Just look at the way the guy jumps, his "court vision" and "presence" and all other sorts of bullshit that means nothing.  That's how McHale ran this team.... he epitomized the dumbest aspects of Minnesota sports (which is a WHOLE OTHER ARTICLE) which basically is the "I know more than everyone else" attitude.

Kahn is, of course, on the complete opposite side of the spectrum.  It's almost as though he is unfamiliar with the sport of basketball.  He sees only salaries and stats.  He sees draft picks not as actual human beings, but chips in a stack.  And he sees every contract as an "asset".  He believes the number one goal of a sports team is to acquire the most assets possible.  If he could, he'd carry a roster of 40 players, and just wheel and deal all day long.  Kahn is the type of guy who will trade Jason Hart for a 2nd round pick and Alando Tucker.  "Hey, if I trade this trash for that trash, I can acquire another piece of trash!  Oh, and 2nd round picks are totally worth it and sometimes work out!"

When McFucko was fired, Kahn came in guns blazing.  And he showed that he was not afraid to make deals during his first draft, when he got us Rubio (or rather, the rights to Rubio).  That whole off-season was nothing but deal-making:  Ryan Hollins, Ramon Sessions, Sasha Pavlovic, Nathan Jawai, etc.  The roster was turning over, and everyone loved the action.  Ultimately though, look at where we are.

I'd like to try something here, and this may not work.  This is a brief retrospective on their careers (because Kahn's is going to end soon, and no, he won't surface on another team), painting some connections between the two, and the polar opposites as well.

HIGHEST RISK MOVE


Deadzo - Was trading KG risky?  No, not at all, because we all knew the Wolves would end up horseshit in that deal.  No, the highest risk he ever took was making the under-the-table deal with Joe Smith.  Why was it risky?  Well, even though Deadzo didn't know this at the time, if he was found out to have broken the rules, he would be hamstringing his team's drafting options for years.  If it worked out, hey great, you got Joe Smith without him testing free agency first.

Well... we all know how that turned out.

There are a lot of reactions that we as fans have in looking back at that absolute shit-for-brains move, but the one that I always come back to is "JOE SMITH?!!?!?"  If you go under the table for Kobe, or LeBron, or KG, hey great.  Go out and git some.  But Joe Smith?  This is so obviously a McHale move.... he had "his guy", and he loved the way he did the up and unders and took charges so much that he would do anything to keep him.  Including forfeit half a decade of draft picks.

Kahn - Trading Randy Foye and Mike Miller for the draft rights to Ricky Rubio.  This one is still playing out, and the risk actually wasn't that huge.  Foye is a dog, and Mike Miller shoots really well when he plays with 3 all-stars.  Rubio may never come here, true, but it was a calculated risk.  And what was it calculated on?  That's right... value.  Kahn ran the numbers of both Miller and Foye, and - probably without thinking how any of the pieces fit together - calculated that a #5 draft pick is "worth more" than those two players.

BEST MOVE WHERE THE GM WAS ACTUALLY VINDICATED FOR THEIR DUMB-HEADEDNESS

Deadzo - Drafting KG.  No doubt about this one.  The famous story goes that Deadzo and Flip went to go see KG play a high school game with the specific intention of hyping up the player so someone else would draft him high and they'd have a better pick fall to them at #5.  They saw KG play, and on the flight home said "We're not telling ANYBODY about this guy".  I'm sure that story isn't true, because Deadzo's a goddamned liar, but it clearly was one of the rare times that Deadzo saw a "ballplayer" who was actually better than what people said about him, and he reached out and grabbed him.  He just happened to have turned into a hall of famer.

Kahn - Umm.... trading Al Jeff?  I guess that could work here.  He looked at the current contract of Al (which was massive for someone who doesn't believe in defense) and decided to dump him for draft picks.  That usually doesn't work (because draft picks hardly ever work out, especially here) but it kind of made sense... at least to Kahn.  Hey, what can you say, the man loves his picks.  I think he sometimes has dreams that he has acquired every pick in each round of the NBA draft, and he just goes up there and names 60-odd players all at once.

WORST MOVE THAT WAS MOTIVATED BY THEIR DUMB-HEADEDNESS


Deadzo - Long list here.  Let's go with Doody.












McFail reached out and grabbed Doody with the 26th pick overall in 2003, and he played like he should've been drafted 2,600th.  Clearly still buzzed off picking KG out of high school, McFail lined up the pins and shot the bowling ball right into the gutter on this one.  He clearly had seen Doody win the high school dunk contest and decided that THAT was the man he was going to pair with KG someday for Western Conference dominance.

Kahn - Drafting Jonny Flynn one pick after drafting Ricky Rubio.  I'm still not sure if Kahn understands "positions" in the game of basketball.  I'm serious.  I think he thinks every player is about the same height and they all do relatively the same thing.  What other explanation is there for drafting a point guard and then turning around the very next pick and drafting a point guard?  And don't tell me "it was an insurance option".  Bullshit, Kahn came out the next day and said he envisioned them playing together.  He drafted Flynn because he thought he could some day trade him for another first-rounder.  That's how he thinks... assets.

LONG LISTS OF FAILURES FOR BOTH OF THE LOSERS

Deadzo - (cracks knuckles, furrows brow) Let's start with trading KG for absolute fucking worthless garbage.  Continue with keeping Wally well past his prime and not dumping him for Baron Davis years earlier.  We already mentioned Doody, but what about Skita?  Signing Troy Hudson to a 6 year deal after he broke his ankle.  Drafting Will Avery.  Exchanging Sam Cassell for Marko JaricRicky DavisMarcus Banks.  Finding an absolute steal in Mario Chalmers... then trading him ON FUCKING DRAFT NIGHT to Miami for 2 future second rounders.  Drafting Foye instead of Brandon Roy, which is like me choosing to eat grass clippings instead of egg rolls.  Did I mention trading KG?

Kahn - They aren't abject failures... because he hasn't had much to work with in the first place.  But really, haven't we been told from day one that Kahn was saving up all these pieces to eventually make that big move for one or two guys?  And what has happened?  He signed Ramon Sessions, and that was awesome, but then he traded him and Ryan Hollins for Delonte West and Sebastian Telfair.  Then he waived Delonte.  And that guy, Jason Hart (who I have never heard of before today)?  He traded him away, then requested waivers on him.  JUST PUT TOGETHER PACKAGES TO LAND BETTER PLAYERS.  Kahn is playing a game without an end.... nobody is ever going to come up to him and offer him the Spree and Sam deal.  He's going to keep trading away Bassy and signing him a year later.  He's going to keep trading one 2nd round pick for 2 more the next year.  He's going to draft a guy who has potential, then he's going to trade him for cash.  And why?  Because it all makes sense upstairs for David.  If he wins, everything works.

The problem?  They have won 32 goddamned games in the last two years combined.  And next year looks even worse.  Nothing I can write here can argue with the facts, and those are that the Wolves are not close now, nor will they be in a few years, nor will they ever with David Kahn as GM.

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Clearly the solution to all this madness is to just find a competent GM who isn't one way or another on the spectrum.  Just a guy who assigns values to players, but also constructs a team.  A guy who understands that in the NBA, one position is very important, and the guys that are on your roster all have to fit a role.  You can't just throw 12 guys together... not because they're all "gamers", and not because they are all pieces of some goddamned trade you promise to make in 3 years.  You construct it slowly and carefully, and you don't give up 3 months in because you made one bad move.  You don't hire a coach to run a sophisticated offense, give him shit players to deal with for 2 years, and then fire him because nobody wants to try on defense.

From Deadzo to Kahn, the pain keeps coming.  United we run... away from the basketball and success.

May 26, 2011

Hey, Didn't You Used to...

What is it About Ex-Wolves?

As the Conference Finals wind down and I find myself drawn to the rosters of the teams that will be competing for the NBA Championship, something jumped out at me about those squads. Assuming Chicago doesn’t do what I want them to do, there will be at least one ex-Wolf guaranteed to get themselves a shiny, new ring. Brian Cardinal, Corey Brewer, and Mike Miller all spent at least one full season playing basketball for our squad. That got me thinking about other ex-Wolves that went onto earn some flashy jewelry.

Some more deserving than others…


Scott Brooks, 1994 Houston Rockets
It only took Scotty two years away from the Wolves to grab himself a ring. Teaming with future-Wolves player Sam Cassell, Brooks helped provide the Rockets with the punch off the bench they needed to win the championship. If OKC had been able to get by Dallas, he could’ve become the first ex-Wolves player to coach a team to a title.

Luc Longley, 1996-1998 Chicago Bulls
Talk about a 180. Luc spent the first 2½ seasons with the worst team in the NBA and then got traded to one of the greatest teams of all-time. Do you think he noticed the difference playing with Michael Jordan versus Doug West? What about Tony Cambell? Gerald Glass?

Isaiah “JR” Rider, 2001 Los Angeles Lakers
This is one of those players that, much like Darko, fell ass-backwards into a ring. At least, in Darko’s case, you can’t say he didn’t deserve a title, at least not yet – although he just auctioned off his ring so maybe it doesn’t count? I digress. But man, to go from dunk contest champion and freaky athletic talent to pregnant-girl-kicking psychopath, to NBA champion, is quite the roller coaster ride for JR. Of course he may not have remembered much of it because he was busy selling stolen cell phones and smoking weed out of a pop can. What are the odds he still has that ring? I bet he didn’t auction it off for charity like Darko did.

Chauncey Billups, 2004 Detroit Pistons
When he was a young pup – pun fully intended – Flip didn’t think he was a starting point guard in the NBA, so Chauncey left for greener pastures. Much like Brooks, it only took Billups two years away from Minnesota to grab himself – and Darko – a ring. Flip was a healthy Sam Cassell away from facing Billups in the NBA Finals that year but the Lakers saved us from being embarrassed by the Pistons that year. And a couple years later, Flip was coaching Billups in Detroit. Go figure.

Rasho Nesterovic, 2005 San Antonio Spurs
Sadly, the discussion for who the best Wolves center ever, starts with Randy Breuer and ends with Rasho. Darko may enter that conversation in a couple of years, but talking about the Wolves best center is like arguing about what gives you a worse hang over, Mad Dog or Nighttrain. It’s almost not worth finding out. Almost. Rasho was a solid contributor on a playoff team, but then again, I may have had too much Nighttrain to remember it that well.

Sam Cassell, 2008 Boston Celtics
He was here just long enough to endear himself to us Wolves fans and stayed just long enough to piss us all off. The what-if conversations about The Season begin and end with Cassell’s back. Even though he could hardly walk the Wolves still almost beat the Lakers. What might’ve been...

Kevin Garnett, 2008 Boston Celtics
This one is so bitter-sweet for Wolves fans. Nobody in the whole world wanted KG to win a title more than ‘Sota fans. But to have to watch him do it in another jersey was painful. We were all so mad about the trade and while much of that anger was directed at Deadzo, there was still plenty left over for Danny Ainge and the C’s. I think I speak for most Wolves fans when I say that I’m glad that they won it right away, because having to “cheer” for the Boston Celtics any longer than I had to would’ve been more torturous than the trade itself. Fucking Celtics.

May 25, 2011

Buried Treasure!

Recently, while cleaning out the office, I was going through a box of books from when I was a wee little misfit.  Most of the time when you’re cleaning out boxes of your old things, it just results in a lot of extra trash that needs to be taken out. You tend to discover that you kept so much crap that it often times blows the mind. It’s not that those things weren’t important at one time, but it was probably a long time ago and, frankly, you didn’t have a great idea about what was important and what was not. Obviously.

Sometimes however, you discover that subconsciously you were a genius. Sometimes you find gold.

Pure. Solid. Gold.

Exhibit A

Yeah, that’s from 90-91. I’m not totally sure how it ended up in a box full of Disney and Nursery Rhyme books, but hey, I must’ve realized the importance of this document back then and made sure to stash it away. Keep it secret. Keep it safe.
You’ll notice I made some creative “additions” to the artwork.
Bulls Vs…..Magic? Bulls?

Also, while my contribution to the art makes it hard to read, this “book” is a sticker album - Yeah! Stickers!

Each page in this glorious album is dedicated to an NBA team, holding the sticker-player-cards of 6 members of each squad.  Oh boy. 


Here you go…



Yeah, here’s our coach. How was growing up in Cupertino?

Here’s the “good” version of Rambis. It just makes me want to see the double-pump jam from behind the arc!

The Kings were nice enough to fail more than the Wolves that year and with “plays” like this, it’s not a surprise. 

What is he doing anyway, football, errr?

One. Word. Needed.

Face.

Before cocaine – well, probably after too…

(sniiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiifffff...)

22-60 that year – only 5 games better than they were THIS year. It’s sad when a team led by Pooh Richardson and Randy Breuer has more success than a team led by Kevin Love and Mike Beasley.

Apparently talent doesn’t always fair better.

I think Randy may have put on Tod Murphy’s shorts, but the skyhook makes up for it!

Trip, this one is for you. Kelly is “flashing” his midrange game.

Probably on his way to a mid-life crisis.

I wanted to show you the glory that was this team. And by ‘glory’ I mean ‘stupid looking.’

Brad.

Jack.

Greg.

God, Greg.

Big Gregg?

Durr

Geeeeee

(Heavy breathing)

“Hi, I don’t sweat!”

I think someone should make a documentary about Mike Gminski. Only because Will Farrell could play him…

Oh wait, they already made that movie. Minus Gminski. I got a fever and the only prescription is more Gminski!

The precursor to Vlade.

Fucking Vlade.

Fucking Rony.

Wait, I didn’t realize Greg Oden was around back in….

ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
















Exhibit B


Overall this one doesn’t meet the gold standard that was set by the basketball sticker album however there were two items that may melt your mind.

















Awwww, look, a family full of athletes.  Sorry Darrell, a couple years as a catcher for the Angels during their “hey day” doesn’t really equate to the Hall of Fame. But hey, good try!














And finally…

I had wished there was a way for me to hide this until you’ve read what I wanted to write about this gem but then I realized there are no words that I can put together that would do it any justice at all. The best thing I came up with was a picture of John Justice and Master Mel hugging and that’s not really words – nor does it express much related to the following image, other than awesomeness and the fact that neither have anything to do with basketball.

So, enjoy with caution…


May 20, 2011

NBA Draft, Huh?

Immediate Impressions

I know I'm not the only one who feels like the draft was fixed this year. No, it's not because the Wolves didn't get the first pick - they were lucky to only move down one pick in the draft. And frankly, I'm happy they didn't get the first pick

So Cleveland, less than one year removed from losing the only athelete to ever don a Cavs jersey - sorry Daughtery and Ehlo - and they end up with the first pick in the draft? Oh, and to top it off, it was the Clippers pick that did it. 2.8% chance. You guys gonna take Penny, errrrr?

Not sold yet?

So instead of showing up himself, Dan Gilbert sends his 14-year old child who, sadly, has a neurological disorder that causes tumors to grow wherever and whenever in his body? And the kid steals the show?

Hmmm.

I can't really get any further into it because it makes me so mad. I cannot express how happy I am for Cleveland and their fans - and Nick Gilbert - but this "turn of events" that David Stern is in the middle of orchestrating is so blatantly obvious that I can't sit back and just watch any more. It's too picture "perfect" for me.

Celtics and Knicks are relevant again huh? Hmm. $20 says Chris Paul ends un a Knick and Dwight Howard ends up in LA - their team is sliding a little bit now too. Oh, and not on the Clippers either, even with their luck of "winning" the lottery - nice work lottery-protecting that pick, dumbasses.

The Wolves of Woe

Did you happen to see the sports page of the Star Tribune the day the draft lottery was decided?

No? Here it is:

It's the second greatest Wolves-related sports page I've ever seen. It shows us everything we need to know about the Wolves and their draft history, excluding KG. The only way it's better is if they could've worked in a pop can full of smoked schwag and Laettner wearing a Charlie Sheen shirt. Or have Cheorkee Parks and Brian Davis high-fiving over Ndudi Ebi in the background.

So the real question that arises now, and needs to be answered before June 23, is what the hell should the Wolves do with their two pick: #2 and #20.

Let me tell you that, most of the options I came up with make me want to punch myself in the face.


#2 Pick. Trade down and take Jimmer Fredette.

I know, I want to punch both him and me in the face as hard as I can, but it makes too much sense.

The biggest question for this next season is 'Will Rubio Come?'...no, to the Wolves I mean. If he does, we have a log jam at point guard and no shooters for him to pass to. If he doesn't, we could really use a third poing guard and, oh yeah, we still don't have any shooters - sorry Wayne, you just don't cut it. Fredette covers both scenarios for us. He's a pure shooter who really knows how to do one thing really well: Git Buckets. But in a much less only-me way than Ricardo Davis III. Plus, in a pinch, he could eat up some minutes at PG, ala Freddy Hoiberg 2004 Western Conference Finals. As much as it pains me to say it, the kid can play, and can shoot and score better than anyone else in college basketball. I know, J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison could do those things, but nothing about Jimmer says J.J. Morrison. For one, he didn't cry on the court after they lost - and then made a commercial about it. Oh, and yeah Adam, people more people did cry. They're called the Charlotte Bobcats and they cried because they drafted you. But I digress...

If they don't take Jimmer - fucking stupid name anyway - then I'd look at Michael Thompson's kid, Klay Thompson. He's a solid baller and he can shoot lights out. He's also 6'6" and apparently impressed the scouts at the combine - as much as that means.

#20 Pick - trade it down (Drew, I'm sorry in advance about this one)

And take another guy who needs five knuckles to the face. Kyle Singler. We already have two small forwards, but I'm not taking any bets on Martell Webster staying healthy for the year - Michael Williams, anyone? Singler is a very smart forward who played at Duke and, for the most part, those guys tend to stick around the league - especially when they drop in the draft.. Remember a year ago? This kid was a top-10 pick - and this is supposedly a down year for the draft. I just don't want us taking Blasikov Macgolicovickuoisludla just because he's 18 and lit it up in the Egyptian pro league in their 14-game season. Singler played a lot of games in a tough conference, under a very good - and face-punchable - coach. He'll be second round pick so, if he can't take a fist to the lips, you don't have to keep him - he's guarenteed to be better than the former Gopher KG face-punched, right?


It must not be the Rapture - the Wolves didn't get the first pick. I'm just saying.

May 16, 2011

Nice box-out



Hey Heat fans, maybe in the next 7 days, Chris Bosh will learn how to keep opponents away from the rim.

Maybe.

May 9, 2011

This is how I watched the Boston game tonight...


Well yeah, it's an Italian feed of NBA TV... hosted by a guy in a pink Pennsylvania shirt.

The greatest thing is that they hijack the feed and play it without commercials... just cut to these jokers in the studio who are gibbering and jabbering nonsense.  And because there's no production, they leave the announcers' mics live... which means Kevin Harlan going OFF THE SCRIPT.

May 4, 2011

See if you can find my car keys while you're down there

I don't know why, but my favorite basketball move since Vlade Divac came into the NBA and ruined the game is when a defender flops and there is no call.  For years those goddamned Mavericks and Kings teams attempted to soccer-up the league, and for the most part, Team Stern was happy to oblige.  But now there seems to be a bit of backlash, at least, towards this kind of thing.  Still though, occasionally you get a princess like Rondo who is clearly outmatched and should really just wave LeBron through like a matador, but he just HAS to try to stop him.  However, he's not nearly tall, strong or quick enough to actually stop him, so he falls to the ground - Ass over Adam's Apple - hoping the refs will blow the whistle and turn the ball over.

Sorry, but that doesn't happen, not on the road.  Instead, you crumple to the ground and get to be on a poster.

Next time, don't fucking flop.

April 21, 2011

Breaking down "Ballin Is My Hobby" by Rashad McCan't-Score-The-Basketball-Consistently

Let's kick this up a notch.

First of all, I'd like to point out how this thing has really become a phenomenon... people are reposting this video all over the web and mocking it (rightfully so), only to be called out on Twitter by Rashad himself.  It started with a blurb in the Star Trib, sort of a "where are they now" piece, and now it's seeping everywhere.  So, in order to be out front (and hopefully warrant a call-out from Rashad on Twitter!  Come on buddy, give us the coverage!), I decided to break down the lyrics of his new song, in a way that only a long-suffering Timberwolves fan can.  Let's begin:


Ballin' is my hobby (repeat)

First of all, I have to point out the utter perfectness of the title and common refrain of this song. Yes, it sure is a hobby. It was clear that it was a hobby from his first day here. The problem is that while playing basketball can be a cool hobby if you are, you know, in college, by the time you get to the pros it takes a little bit more dedication to stick around. Rashad played with KG and suffered from lack of motivation. Hmmm... I don't know how that's possible. *I* make sure I'm sitting straight up when KG looks at me - through the TV.

Ballin' is my hobby
I be dunking like Amare
I'll be riding Masarati
Or the cherry red Bugati

Well, he called out his first NBA player, so let's do a comparison:

When you search for "Amare Stoudemire Dunks" on Youtube, you get:


That's a hundred dunks.

When you do the same for McCants:


Video game.

Chris Paul and I be ballin' like it's Mardi Gras
I'm married to my money, motherfucker, like it's common-law.

Rashad and Chris Paul had similar college careers... Chris played 2 years at Wake Forest before being drafted 4th overall. Rashad played 3 years, won an NCAA title, and was drafted 14th by the Wolves. The difference in the pro game?

Chris Paul - 7936 points, 4228 assists, 1951 rebounds
Rashad McCants - 2479 points, 331 assists (you like passing, or?), 506 rebounds

They were drafted the same year.

Quick draw, quick trigger like I'm Sugar Ray,
Shootin' long range, Larry Bird, nigga, fly away.
Takin' off on you niggas like I'm Dr. J
Dr. Dre beats on my ear lettin' shots spray.

Larry Bird once shot 43% from 3 point range.
Rashad McCants once shot 27%.

Yeah I'm ballin' bitch, ballin' in Miami Beach,
Big meat-style fightin' blue (??) with the Miami Heat.

I'm not sure about the lyrics here (Big Meat Style??? You sure this wasn't written by Oliver Miller?), but he mentions the Miami Heat. What exactly is going on with the Miami Heat? Because Rashad's average of 1.3 assists per game for his career would put him juuuuuuust ahead of Jamal Magloire for 5th best on the team.

I'm fabulous, and it's pourin' outta me,
Ballin' is my hobby, you can see it in my salary.
Tragedy, tragedy, you isn't me,
Cause ballin' is my hobby, I be shining like a christmas tree.

Lots of talk about money, and that goes with the territory. I don't think anyone ever begrudged Rashad his money, or would make fun of him for having made 7.5 million dollars during his playing days (it's going to take me 3 or 4 lifetimes to make that much). But he could've been so much more, if it wasn't just a "hobby" to him. You know who was drafted 3 picks after Rashad in the same year? Danny Granger. And ballin', to him at least, isn't just a hobby. He works at it, and has improved every year he's been in the league. He made 10 million dollars... last year. He's made over 27 million in his 6 year career. And he was drafted to a dog-shit Pacers team, same as McCants. So, yeah, go ahead and git money, but when players actually, you know, work hard and improve, they usually shine a lot brighter than a christmas tree.

See me in the club, make it rain like I'm by ya bitch,
Ballin' is my hobby, gettin money is a compliment.
Thank you very much, thank you now, thank you later,
I be lovin' all the haters while I'm gettin all this paper.
I be lovin' all this cash, this cake and this cream,
Ballin' is my hobby, I can beat the Dream Team.

Numbers!

Well, I don't think that Rashad could actually beat the Dream Team. Over the course of their career, the starters averaged:

Magic: 19.5 PPG
Michael: 30.1 PPG
Admiral: 21.1 PPG
Mailman: 25.0 PPG
Larry: 24.3 PPG

That totals 120 points per game. Rashad? He's at an even 10.

So, is there any one player he could beat on the Dream Team?

John Stockton? Nope, 13 PPG. Plus, you know, 10.5 assists. Chris Mullin? Despite the flat-top, Mullin was good for 18 a game.

Come on, you and I both know there was one player on that Dream Team that McCants might have a chance to beat... Mr. Winner, Christian Laettner.

McCants: 10.0 PPG, 2.0 Rebounds, 1.3 Assists, 43% shooting for his career
Laettner: 12.8 PPG, 6.7 Rebounds, 2.6 Assists, 48% shooting for his career

OUCH. Just absolutely done in by Laettner. And money? Christian made over 61 million dollars in his career, pulling in 5.5 million in his 12th season. Rashad didn't last 5 seasons in the NBA.

So, that Dream Team proclamation.... I'm not buying it.

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I wouldn't care about this at all, not one bit, if I hadn't sat with Mr. Bliznewski and watched Rashad McCants and those like him (non-trying, offense-only knuckleheads) slowly drag our Timberwolves down into the muck over the late 00's. Sure, it's McFail's fault for drafting them... so all of the BS rolls uphill, but it still would've really been nice if one or two of these guys would've worked out. Just for one of them to have a Ray Allen career (and I'm talking before the championships). Hell, it would've been nice just to see ONE of the guys actually GET BETTER. But it never happened. Look at McCants' career... his "best" season was 07-08 (after you-know-who was traded). He averaged 14.9 points per game, but committed 2.3 turnovers. NICE. He was traded the next year.

So, to Rashad, I find your budding rap career to be semi-entertaining, but only because you choose to use basketball metaphors in between talking about how much money you have. But really, I just wish you had tried to play defense with Kevin Garnett, and that you had given your maximum effort on every night, because you really were talented, and you wasted your NBA career. It's that simple.

Thanks for reading though!

March 25, 2011

Order. Has. Been. Restored.

Jalen Rose was recently talking about Duke and basically said that he grew up despising them and everything they represent.  He said they always represented something that he could never have, and therefore was taught at a young age to dislike their method of operating.  I'm right there with him.  See, I've been a fan of the Razorbacks since Todd Day.  And even though we eventually climbed that mountain-top (and damn near did it TWICE), those early days always ended with me hating Duke.  They were the anti-Arkansas, to my mind, but really, aren't they the anti-Everyone?  There is no other program in the country that comes close to Duke basketball.  I remember a friend in middle school once told me that even the name of the university sounded like a disease.  Like AIDS.  "Hey man, just got back from the clinic... Yeah, my Duke test came back positive."  You can talk about sports hate all you want, and certainly there are valid explanations for despising the Yankees, Cowboys, Red Sox, Lakers, etc.  But those are pro teams.  College programs usually have a healthy dose of regional hate ("It will die.  You think I care?  ROLL DAMN TIDE."), but the Duke hate reaches a true national level.  Seriously, EVERYONE likes to see them lose.  It's one of the most enjoyable experiences we share as a nation of sports fans.

Now then, this post isn't about hate.  It's about gambling.  So get on with it.

I suppose the John Nash in me will never quiet down.  Sure, when I see free money on the table, I grab my satchel and git all I can, but I never stop looking for that pattern.  I like a framework, however loose, to guide my gambling decisions.  Look, this is not Simmons' manifesto - which is so overwrought, conflicting and often just incredibly WRONG - it's a guide to general principles of gambling on a specific sport.  Let me tell you of a few things that would constitute a framework of gambling in various sports:


College Football
We start here because it's the easiest.  It's literally the safest way to make money outside of having a job... and even then, it's safer than your retirement plan.  The plan goes like this:  identify a handful of teams that are good enough to contend for a BCS bowl game, but don't happen to play for one of the DS'ing conferences.  These are teams like TCU, Boise State, Utah, Nevada, etc.  They are the class of their conferences, but they get absolutely no respect from voters, because Fats Turkeyroll will always vote Alabama #1 because every goddamn game is a rivalry.  So how do they get votes?  THEY EARN THEM BY SCORING 80 POINTS ON IDAHO.  So the game is simple - identify these teams and ride them into the ground.  We learned very much from our dear leader this season, and those lessons will last a lifetime.

Professional Football
It's tougher, because there are no votes to be had, but simple axioms do apply.  During the regular season, it's pretty much all about who needs the game more.  The Skins can beat the Eagles if doing so means keeping hopes alive for one of the teams.  Also, in games that really matter, it's all about coaching and preparation.  Anyone alive knew that the Jets had spent their entire playbook to beat the Patriots and would have nothing left for Pittsburgh.  So there are a few rules to follow, but nothing too concrete.

Professional Basketball
First, it's easy to bet the playoffs once you see which refs are calling the games, and what they mean.  Oh, the Celtics have fallen behind 3-2 and they need a win to force Ratings 7, I mean Game 7?  TO THE BAVETTA PHONE!  During the season, I generally follow the "Ghetto Ball" model, the summary of which is to find teams that play horrible ghetto ball (GOLDEN STATE'S BEEN DOING IT FOR 15 YEARS) and hammer them when the time is right.  Orlando is one of those wild card teams... against Boston they are probably going under, but you stay away.  Against Toronto?  GO GO GO.  Still though, ghetto ball is hard to read for most teams... like the Wolves don't like playing defense, but they also don't like scoring.  So tread lightly.

Professional Hockey
Bet the over or under on the Grand Salami if you are drunk in Las Vegas and need more action because you are a degenerate.  Spend 2 minutes thinking about stats, and then just pound a white russian and flip a coin.  Hockey is stupid.

And that brings us to College Basketball.  Besides the obvious "Bet Duke to lose in the tournament if they have to play west of the Mississippi, no matter who they are playing even if it is NJIT", I've always had a hard time with the league.

First, you have to throw out the law of transitive properties.  Who cares if Wisconsin lost to Iowa?  They are going to destroy Belmont (LEARNED THAT ONE A LITTLE LATE, EH DREW?).  And, although it's fun to get down to Friends University, it clearly doesn't matter when isolated to one game.  For example, Florida State lost to AUBURN.  But look at them now.  So you can't get caught up in single-game performances.  Any team can take a game off and still make a run.  Unless they are the Gophers.

Another example of what NOT to do is to bet program history.  This seems like it would be obvious, and of course it is, but I find myself betting histories and past success more often than not.  Oh, Pittsburgh?  That's an over!  But still, you have to research, and break down the matchup.  When you don't, you might as well be betting hockey.

So, what's the solution?  Well, one thing I've found is betting regional matchups.  The theory goes like this:  let's say you're betting the MAAC (and why wouldn't you?).  When an underdog is at home to a favorite from the top of the conference, hammer that underdog.  They'll be 8 point dogs at home and it will go down to the wire.  Why?  Well, first, IT'S THE MAAC.  But second, you have to bet into the parity.  Bet into the fact that even though Rider is good, they aren't THAT good.  Basketball is one of those sports where the home crowd truly sways both the officiating and flow of the game.  That home crowd for Niagara is going to BRING IT.

Also, style of play matters in the tournament.  If a team is plodding, methodical and sound on defense, they are likely going to beat a team that dunks a lot.  If a team makes their throws, and plays ball control, the only type of team that can upend them is another team that does that just a little bit better.  HOWEVER, in the case of Arizona/Duke, there's this fun thing that happens when the underdog starts ghettoing all over the favorite, just dunking down their throat at every opportunity, and once that happens, all bets are off.  So pay attention to the location of the game, and the potential for ghetto fun, but bet coaches and styles.

And really, that's what it's all about... not knowing what's going to happen but betting into the unknown.  This last Duke game gave me a little glimpse at something resembling a theory forming in my head... but I still need more work.  Every sport has an angle by which you can penetrate to the gambling core.  I will find it in basketball.  I have a beautiful mind.

March 17, 2011

Let's start the day off with this...



Listen to Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg. Just buffoons. Gus Johnson would've been dead by halftime.

Particularly, skip to the 5:40 mark. I swear, Jim actually flipped into Master's Mode, thinking he had to keep quiet lest he be yelled at for disturbing the concentration of the holy athlete. IT'S A CHAMPIONSHIP BASKETBALL GAME. And he whispers "Butler has no timeouts".

Here's to another year!

March 5, 2011

Stop everything, I've got a new rule for this blog

Ok, so from now on, I must insist that whenever we post anything along the lines of "This Timberwolves team is a failure" or "This guy the Timberwolves drafted pulled a gun on his moms" or "Looks like Rubio's going to stay in Spain until he's 30", then we need to post this image:



Because I've got to tell you, nothing we could ever say or do could speak more volume to the failure of this franchise than the fact that if you go to Cub foods and buy 4 cans of vegetables, you get two tickets to a Wolves game. NOTHING.

Thank you, carry on.

March 3, 2011

Brigham Young University Athletics Are Bullshit

Ok, so a guy on the BYU basketball team dipped his wick, and we're all just going to freak the fuck out. That's fine.

But this really only pulls back the curtain a tiny bit on the unbelievable amount of bullshit that BYU slings on a daily basis. For years, I thought Notre Dame was the most detestable Division I program due to their complete stubbornness to ever join a conference and be forced to play football against, you know, good teams to prove themselves. No. They would beat Michigan, Michigan State and fucking walk to the dance because they also played Army, Navy and Wayne State. Hey great. Everyone stacks their non-conference schedule. But what if your WHOLE SCHEDULE was non-conference? And the NCAA let this happen, because why? Because they are Notre Dame, and when their program pulls down the pants to take a piss, scented bath soap comes out instead.

But here comes BYU. Now, I don't have a problem with rules. Different programs institute different rules, I get that. You're not going to have the same curfew at Loyola Marymount as you will at Miami. And lord knows that academic violations at Yale are a bit more frowned upon than at Cincinnati. That's fine. And this isn't even one of those posts that points and laughs at BYU because they don't let their athletes drink coffee. Again, when you look at the inmates-running-the-asylum mentality of a LOT of NCAA programs throughout the country (does UNLV even have classes? Do they have buildings? Or does every single student just git buckets?), I think quite a few of them would do well to institute some more rules. Royce White stole a fucking laptop from a dorm, then stole shit from Mall of America. A laptop? Dude, they're like 300 bucks. And I'm pretty sure computer labs are open 24 hours a day during finals week, you know, if you need to finish up that research paper....

No, the reason BYU is bullshit is because they refuse to play games on Sunday. In all sports. Even intramurals.

Now, if you are, say, Friends University, fine. Go ahead and say that you will not play on Sunday. And then everyone will laugh at you and we'll go about our business. But how the fuck is this fair to an NCAA tournament field? They refuse to play on Sunday... so the NCAA bends over backwards to accommodate them. I looked at the history - they've been to the NCAA tournament 14 times in the last 24 years. Guess how many opening round games they played on Friday? Not a goddamn one. Every single year they were scheduled for Thursday.

Ok, so what's the point? Well, let's look at some recent history:

2010 - 7 seed West
2009 - 8 seed West
2008 - 8 seed West
2007 - 8 seed South
2004 - 12 seed West
2003 - 12 seed South

Now, every single one of those opening round games was on a Thursday (big surprise). And, there is no formula to when seeds play. For example, before the tournament begins, we have no idea if the 1 seed is going to play on Thursday or Friday (that is all determined during selection sunday). So, one year, the 7 seed plays on Thursday... the next year it plays on Friday.

And all this means is that the NCAA selection committee is absolutely on their knees to BYU.

The one consistency throughout the years is that despite the seeds switching what day they play, they always play in "pods". Meaning, the 1-16 always falls on the same day as the 8-9. They do this, presumably, so that they can lock in those matchups (the teams would instantly know who they were going to play next... and could even be in the same building to watch them on their game day). So if the 1 seed plays on Thursday, you're damn sure the 8-9 will be on Thursday too.

Now think about BYU in this scenario.... first of all we have to put aside the bullshit regional aspects of this. Because why does BYU consistently play in the South and West bracket, even when they draw 8 and 12 seeds? Because fuck the committee, that's why. But that happens everywhere, so we'll move on. Ok, the ONLY team in the country that has scheduling sensitivity is BYU... I searched and I could find no example of another school being morally opposed to playing on Sunday. So no matter where the NCAA seats them, they have to play on Thursday. And then, of course, they have to seat them the NEXT Thursday too, if they happen to get out of the first round. And, of course, they pull 3 other teams with them the first round, and 3 more then next round... pretty much the ripples touch the entire tournament. I imagine the NCAA selection committee on Sunday - "Ok guys, let's start - like we always do - with BYU... where are we seeding them and we've got to make sure they don't play on Sunday because - HEY IS THAT A HAM-STEAK BUFFET?!?!?!"

In reality, of course, this has little bearing. Teams don't care when they play, and there is no demonstrable advantage to playing Thursday v. Friday (and based on BYU's history in the tournament, Thursday ain't treating them too hot). But it's just an example of horseshit. One team - ONE TEAM - will not play on a certain day, and they have to adjust the entire schedule according to them. And come on, you can't tell me ratings don't then play into the seeding. Let's do a hypothetical: UCLA is the one seed in the West, and BYU is around a 8 or 7 seed. If they go 8, then they have to play on Thursday, which means UCLA does too. Let's see, how do we maximize ratings? When do more people watch... Thursday or Friday? GREASE THE POCKETS, CHARLIE.

The fucking tournament seeding is a joke... we've all seen Duke pull a 5 seed and have their first 4 games within 30 minutes of their campus while USC plays on the other side of the country with a 2 seed. We all know it's sleaze central, and I guess this is just one more example.

It's bullshit, but it's always been bullshit, and we'll keep watching. Damn you.

It looks like the Gophers have a lead in the 2nd Half...

February 18, 2011

Handicapping Tougaloo's chances at a #1 seed

A few years ago - inspired by that infamous Gopher poster depicting why they deserved to be crowned national champions because they had defeated Wisconsin or something - Mr. Dickfer and I chased down a long thread of extrapolation to declare that Savannah State indeed did deserve a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. It took a grand total of 10 minutes of back-breaking research, and our reward was that we spend time looking at Savannah State's website, which is always good fun.

Our problem, clearly, was that we didn't go deep enough.

And that brings us to Tougaloo College. Located in Madison County (no, not that Madison County), Mississippi, this small liberal arts college boasts such alumni as Aunjanue Ellis and Robert Honeysucker. With an enrollment of 900, it's hard to see how they could compete with Duke. But by the simple Law of Transitive Properties (which is something we all know is a real thing), the Bulldogs should indeed be squaring off with the likes of North Dakota State in the first round.

You see, Tougaloo defeated Southern University.

Southern then beat Alabama State.

Alabama State beat Kennesaw State.

The Owls picked up a huge win against Georgia Tech (THE MISSING LINK).

Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech.

The Hokies defeated Florida State.

And, of course, Florida State defeated Duke on January 12th.

So there you have it....

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When you make the jump down into the NAIA, the world opens up into a flood of beauty. Because from Tougaloo, it's not a far jump to Haskell Indian Nation University. In 1884, it was formed as one of the first Indian Boarding Schools, which were pretty much responsible for the final death blow to Indian culture in America. Indian children were taught only English and were instructed to forget their Indian heritage. So, positive beginnings. They are currently governed by the Bureau of Indian Affairs, which is a government organization that gave rise to groups like AIM strictly for the purpose of opposing them.

Oh, and also:

The academic quality of the university was called into question after receiving a #9 ranking on the 2010 Top 50 Dropout Factory list from Washington Monthly in their College Guide.

The ranking was based on the 9% graduation rate reported to the Department of Education.


Well then. I think even Huggy Bear graduated more at Cincinnati.

But this year, Haskell lost an important game to Bethel. Nope, not that Bethel. This one is in Kansas. And has 500 students. Bethel is located in a town called North Newton. That's a town of 1,500 people.

Oh, and I'm sorry, did I fail to mention that Bethel College is a MENNONITE COLLEGE?

When I was in 10th grade or so, I was at a Burger King out on the edge of town (isn't that a Merle Haggard tune?), and I watched a family walk in from the truck stop in the adjoining building. The mother was wearing clothes that were hand-made and looked to be from 1870. The father had the beard that went down to his stomach. There were two children, both looking like they had literally been working the fields behind the plow-steer all day. I had just been studying about Mennonites for a class (as well as Israeli Kibbutz!) and now I was seeing them in the flesh, for the first time. I just had to know... so I walked up to one of the children and asked them if they were Mennonites. She said yes, and they all smiled and I smiled back and we parted ways.

And clearly folks, I have no bias against the Mennonites. They are goddamned dedicated to peace, and I respect that. I respect it so much that I will now joke about it.

First of all, does the team make their own uniforms with needle and thread? Do they practice by candlelight? Does some rogue edit their season's highlights into a DVD? Because if so, who will watch it? When you go to play the Mennonites in basketball, is there really any competition, or are you all just happy and shaking hands and helping each other up the entire game? I think the Mennonites would actually be happier with losses... that would play more into their religious beliefs. So long as they worked as hard as they could, of course.

And so it's really no surprise that Bethel College was handily defeated by Friends University.

There is a university in Wichita, Kansas that goes by the name of Friends University. No, it's not named after Edward Friend or whatever. It's just Friends. As in, friendship.



Look at that picture. This building clearly used to be a bank. Or a Pizza Hut. Or both.





"GOING TO COLLEGE IS FUN AND MY NAME IS ROMAN. YOU WANNA RIDE BIKES?"

When you go to the Athletics page on their website, the first link you see is for Cross Country. So we know the priorities are in order.

Also, take a look at the NAMES.
Denzel Goudeau (is that a cheese?)
Thomans Bland (not Thomas. Thomans.)
Eli Applegate ("Tis a fine barn, but sure it is no pool, English!")
Cody AND Colton Rausch (oh god someone find me a picture)
Zak Vanlooy (hey, who smokes grass on the team bus?)

When Friends University faced off against Bethel, the final score was 55-35. It may as well have been 1-0. Or just call it a tie. Because, come on, there are no losers in life. We're all standing in that sunlight, going for that Glory.

And finally, to just wrap this all up, if you're not going to give Friends University a #1 seed, then at least consider giving it to a team that showed they really have what it takes when they defeated the Falcons in overtime: Bacone College.

Mmmmm, I get hungry just thinking about it.

February 15, 2011

Tough Times in the SWAC

King of a castle made out of Styrofoam..."What if we say 'Metroplex?'"...Reliant Stadium is a "facility"

These are not easy days for the basketball teams of the schools of the SWAC.  The schools in Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas were used as fodder for others' pre-seasons.  They entered their conference schedule battered and worn.  Hell, who wouldn't be?  We may never know because so often, the strong refuse to play the strong on anything less than their own home court.  Why give ground and prove yourself?  The "big schools" coast and do their thing until they lose in the NCAA's to a school from a small conference.  Problem is, it won't be to one of these schools.

Conference leader Texas Southern promotes their athletic department with "experience the game!"  That's what those in Houston are attempting to do, brushing aside their local competition from Houston and Rice.  The football team has a promising future ahead, with a new stadium being built that will be shared by Houston's MLS team.  The basketball team?  It toils away at something called the HP&E Arena.  But the team has won all their conference games there.  It has yet to play at Reliant Stadium, which is apparently ready for an overflow crowd.

On Valentine's Day, the Tigers traveled to Louisiana to play at Grambling.  The TSU Tigers (not the Grambling Tigers) hit a lay-up with 3 seconds to go to win the game.  It was a close, exciting contest that nearly sent the ESPNU announcers to sleep!  What do you expect - nearly everyone was either romancing their lady or getting a jump start on their drinking...and if the game is on TV, no need to show up.  The Grambling Tigers are a common example of life in the SWAC: all but ONE non-conference game was on the road.  Florida Gulf Coast will play anywhere (they lost a tough one at West Kentucky last night) so that explains that.  They weren't all losses, either.  But it's a long drive back to Louisiana when you're having to deal with a loss of 30 or more, which unfortunately happened 3 times.  Don't worry, Grambling, the school got a hefty check.  The home team announcers said how you play with pride as they shoot for 3 up 25 with 2 minutes to go.

The SWAC tournament was advertised on last night's game as being in "The Dallas Metroplex."  Hmmm...well, American Airlines Arena (or Center, whichever one isn't the Miami arena) is out.  Is Reunion Arena still around?  Hold on...I don't think it's IN Dallas.  Deep digging found that the game will be in Garland, TX.  It also includes a list of restaurants to, you know, save time.

P.E. Squad, travelling men..."Home of the Torii Hunter Baseball and Softball Complex"...the students voted, we are the Lions

Make that Golden Lions, which sounds like a bar, or a fraternal organization, or a cigarette brand in the 1950s.  But it's who they are, despite the dust-mite looking logo.


Pine Bluff has endured something also experienced by Mississippi Valley State this season: playing ALL non-conference games on the road.  Spending that much time away from school presents a double edged sword for the student and the school.  A good way to improve your ability is to play teams better than you.  (This applies to college sports only) You learn, you see your weaknesses, and celebrate any success against these better teams. 

As a result, Pine Bluff hit the endless black ribbon.  But do they feel they have to without getting anyone (hell, Arkansas or Arkansas State) to come to them?  Sure, the school gets the paycheck mentioned above, the guys get to see Chicago, Hawaii, San Francisco...they lose (in some cases by an obscene amount) and pack their bags.  Could it be worse?  You're showing them the country, and the students are ambassadors of a school many have never heard of beyond basketball losses. 

But is that what they are playing for, free travel?  Do the Golden Lions take the losses in stride and show everyone pictures?  Do the fellow students look at it realistically?  Does a player's Facebook album of the time leading up to the Hawaii game trump the final score?  Maybe there isn't a better way to see the country for free, if you can fit the description.  Or maybe it's just how basketball is in the SWAC.

Bad Days in Baton Rouge..."Or Mini-Dome for short"...the who-now?

The school that's having the toughest time is the one that didn't exactly have the hardest road.  I'd like to highlight some of Southern's non-conference foes, and the result.

November 19th, 2010
Tougaloo 71
Southern 58

Tougalou?  The dance?  Wait, hold on.  Tougaloo College, in Tougaloo, Mississippi.  The Bulldogs are NAIA (oh my).  Their very minimal athletics page doesn't even mention the Southern game.  Hey guys, YOU WON!  Hell, Southern mentions the loss; they admit it.  Their page features photos that may or may not be from the school.  And yet, they took care of a D-I school on the road. 

December 20th, 2010
Xavier (LA) 72
Southern 58

Being stupid, I though this was some sort of college out west I didn't know.  I was wrong - it's the Xavier University in Louisiana, not Ohio.  Did Southern think they were playing the boys from Cincy?  Xavier calls their basketball arena "The Barn" which immediately gives them points.  Xavier plays Tougaloo, and also lost to them, so maybe we should cut Southern some slack.

Consider those two losses and then note that Tulane, an actual D-1 school, visited and escaped with a 3 point win.  Analyzing this would make your brain explode, so I'll stop here.

But, come March, someone from the SWAC is going to dance in madness.  That dance itself will be tough, and likely not last very long.  No matter which school, a SWAC representative will show up.  The result, though anticipated, will be tough either way.